Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has resigned from the All Progressives Congress (APC). His next point of call is unknown. Will he return to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) or form a new party to acualise his presidential ambition? Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU writes on the struggle of the Turaki Adamawa for the presidency.
It was not beyond expectation. Yet, it was the most important political event of last week. The decision was predictable. The ruling party was not caught unawares. Now that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has resigned from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), the question is: what next?
The eminent politician has kept Nigerians guessing. Will he retrace his steps to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which he deserted, ahead of 2015? Will he take a refuge in one of the smaller parties? Will Atiku form a new party, nurture it and contest on its platform for the presidency in 2019?
Although the former vice president has called it quits with the APC, many of his supporters are yet to follow suit. Some of them may not eventually go with him. But, Atiku indicated that there are many aggrieved chieftains planning to jump ship. The Turaki Adamawa was bitter. He vent his anger on the platform and the Federal Government it midwifed. He alleged that the APC has let Nigerians down, referring to a memo written to President Muhammadu Buhari by the diminutive Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, who had complained earlier about the politics of exclusion in the party. The former number two citizen said he has an axe to grind over three main issues: the draconian clampdown on forces of democracy by the APC and its government, the penchant for sidelining the founding fathers and top leaders of the party and the marginalisation of youths.
Atiku’s move appears to have polarised the polity. Mixed reactions have trailed his resignation from the APC. El-Rufai described him as a serial defector, saying that he was living to the billing of a political prostitute. The party’s National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, said he was driven by interest, adding that interest is a great motivation in politics. Other commentators said Atiku left because he had realised that he cannot get the party’s presidential ticket in 2019. They doubt if all his supporters will defect along with him.
An Ekiti State politician, Wole Olujobi, said Atiku’s electoral worth may have been over-exaggerated. “Does he control Adamawa politics as people would want us to believe? If he were that powerful in Adamawa, why did he lose the state’s votes to Buhari during the presidential primary in Lagos? Why did his faction of the APC in Adamawa fail to produce the governorship candidate in the primary that produced Bindow, who eventually emerged as governor?
“Three weeks ago, topmost politicians that control the grassroots more than Atiku in Adamawa State, including Senator Jonathan Zwingina and the Speaker of Adamawa House of Assembly, led topmost politicians in the state to declare support for Buhari for second term to spite Atiku. Is it somebody that is suffering this home humiliation that we are dressing in borrowed robes as a colossus? Is it the man that a lowly Kwakwanso humiliated in the presidential primary that is being elevated to the height incongruous to his political relevance. I believe the man is already reaching the autumn of his political career. The twilight of his political career is on the horizon,” he added.
However, some Nigerians are also unperturbed by the resignation. To them, Atiku has the liberty to change parties at will, if he realises that the platform cannot get him to the promised land. Defection, in their view, is not new, adding that it is typical of Nigerian politics and politicians. Others have hailed his courage, saying that he has the energy and the strong will to forge ahead, despite past disappointments.
Between now and the next election, supporters of Atiku may be enveloped in anxiety. If he forms a new party, it will be dwarfed by the bigger parties. If he join an existing small party, its structures may still be weak to withstand the heat and rigour of presidential election. If Atiku joins the PDP, he faces two hurdles. He will apply for a waiver before he can join the presidential race. The party appears to be in turmoil over its proposed national convention. If the APC is divided as has observed, the PDP is also polarised. Also, the former vice president will meet presidential aspirants on ground. They include the Caretaker Committee Chairman and former governor of Kaduna State, Senator Ahmed Makarfi, former Jigawa State Governor Sule Lamido and Gombe State Governor Ahmed Damkwabo. They still nurse grudges against Atiku for ditching the party twice. Will they jettison their ambitions and step down for him at the primary?
A party source said at the weekend that, although the PDP governors will welcome Atiku to the fold, but they may not be keen about his presidential ambition. The source added: “Both PDP and APC see Atiku as an inconsistent person. If Atiku had stayed in the PDP, may be, he may not have rivals at the primary. He will need to really convince the governors to support him because they may have their own agenda too. Some people are working assiduously to reorganise and reposition the PDP now. Will they want a defector to come and reap the fruits of their labour where he did not sow?”
Septuagenarian Atiku is a veteran presidential aspirant; focused and always hopeful. Early in the year, he picked up the gauntlet and started sharpening his arrows. Ahead of likely presidential contenders, he has returned to the drawing board. Atiku knows his onions. He has resources to mobilise and sponsor political battles. His pastime is building new bridges. His target is the presidency. He is wealth. He has achieved fame. But, according to observers, unless he becomes the president, self-actualisation is elusive.
When he declares for the presidency next year, it will be his fifth attempt. In the last one year, he has been holding consultations with APC and PDP stakeholders across the six geo-political zones. Atiku has many fans. But, he also has many foes. His past battles have made him an experienced politician. In the face of odds, he is not a man to desert the battle field. On many occasions, he is the beautiful bride; often courted and later dumped. He is attractive to potent platforms. He is ready to add value to political parties. But, after his sojourn in the parties, certain circumstances often compel him to jump ship, to the consternation of compatriots.
Atiku is sensitive to the public mood. He is always eager to threat the path of populism. In utter sensitivity to popular yearning, he has become an advocate of restructuring and devolution of powers, which the Obasanjo/Atiku administration avoided like a plague between 1999 and 2007. His aambition may have split the Buhari’s cabinet. Few months ago, his presidential bid was endorsed by the Minister of Women Affairs, Aisha Alhassan. Her public endorsement, according to observers, has kick-started the race for 2019.
Also, Atiku has not relented in firing salvos at the president and the ruling party. The repeated outburst signaled the parting of ways. Noting that he contributed immensely to Buhari’s victory at the poll, he said his marginaliasation in the party was wrong. He said: “After the formation of government, I was sidelined. I have no relationship with the government. I have not been contacted even once to comment on anything and in turn, I maintained my distance. They used our money and influence to get to where they are, but three years down the lane, this is where we are.”
Atiku also set the tone for 2019 campaigns. Beaming a searchlight on the Buhari administration, he said: “The ruling government has failed in many fronts.” He blamed the president for not completely winning the anti-terror war. Last week, he maintained that the APC-led Federal Government has failed to halt th suffering of Nigerians. Atiku intensified his criticisms of government when Buhari, who was critically ill, returned from a 103 day-medical trip in the United Kingdom. Before and immediately after he resumed work, the debate on his fitness and succession plan, if he will not run on 2019, came to the front burner. But, President Buhari may have since overcome his medical challenge, making Atiku to feel that, for the APC, a vacancy does not exist in Aso Villa.
Since he entered politics in the Third Republic, Atiku has not looked back. He has always positioned himself as a factor that cannot be ignored. He is acknowledged a consummate politician, great mobiliser and crowd puller. The politician from Adamawa is generous. He always has good manifestos that are captivating. His mentor was the late Major General Shehu Yar’Adua, the founder of the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM), who brought him to politics. He was drafted into the presidential race in the Third Republic by the Tafida Katsina, following his ban by former military President Ibrahim Babangida. At the Jos convention of the proscribed Social Democratic Party (SDP), slugged it out with the late Chief Moshood Abiola and Ambassador Baba Gana Kingibe. At first ballot, Abiola got 3, 617 votes; Kingibe 3, 255 and Atiku 2, 066. For the run off, Yar’Adua directed Atiku to step down for Abiola, who emerged as the flag bearer. Although he was also a vice presidential aspirant, his candidature was rejected, following pressures on Abiola by the SDP governors and state chairmen who insisted that Kingibe should pair with the SDP presidential candidate.
In 1999, Atiku became the governor-elect of Adamawa State on the platform of the PDP. Owing to his political antecedents as a confidant and dependable ally of Yar’Adua, Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo, the presidential candidate, made Atiku his running mate. As the Vice President, the he was the de facto President and the Controlling Minister of the Economy. To get things done, politicians must curry Atiku’s favour. But, the Obasanjo/Atiku romance did not last. He ran into turbulence. An administrative panel inducted him. He was salvaged by the court.
When the PDP became hot for him, Atiku sought refuge in the defunct Action Congress (AC). In 2007, he was the party’s presidential flag bearer. Unlike in 2003, when he had an opportunity to secure the PDP’s ticket, Atiku has always laboured in vain for the presidency. PDP governors and other big wigs were rooting for him at the 2003 primary. But, he failed to seize the moment. A crafty Obasanjo, an Army General and civil war hero, was said to have prostrated for Atiku to get his nod for re-nomination at that critical midnight. After assisting Obasanjo to get a second term ticket, the former president branded him a corrupt and disloyal partner, saying he no longer has confidence in him.
In 2010, he went back to the PDP. That was the genesis of the suspicion between him and former AC leaders. They were taken aback. Yet, his ambition hit the rock in 2011 as he was stopped by former President Goodluck Jonathan, who wielded the power of incumbency, although he defeated former military President Ibrahim Bababgida at the unofficial Northern regional shadow poll.
Ahead of the 2011 poll, Atiku ran to Abeokuta to make peace with Obasanjo. But, it was counter-productive. The journey did not lead to reconciliation and renewal of ties. When he later unfolded his plan to contest for the Presidency, Obasanjo objected to it, saying: “I dey laugh o.” Obasanjo teamed up with Dr. Jonathan to plot Atiku’s electoral failure at the primary.
However, the defeat did not dampen the spirit of the colourful politician. He tried to review his strategy by weighing some options. Atiku braced up for the tempestuous journey to 2015. He realised that the road was laced with thorns. His supporters thought about floating a new party. When the PDP crisis reached the peak, Atiku exhumed the carcass of the PDM. But, it could not fly. The former PDP Board of Trustees (BoT) Chairman, Anenih, a founding member of the PDM, cried foul, saying that Atiku could not single handedly transform the political group into a political party without wide consultations and the collective endorsement of the surviving members. Later, he defected from the PDP to the APC.
As Atiku was gathering his armies, Obasanjo, his tormentor, dropped another bombshell. At a lecture in Ibadan, the capital of Oyo State, the former president said he refused to hand over to him in 2007 because he could not vouch for him. Atiku has developed a thick skin. Predictably, he unfolded is presidential ambition on the platform of the APC. Justifying his eligibility for the highest office, he said: “I have always fought against military rule. I have also fought for internal democracy. I have always fought against one-party state because it leads to dictatorship.” Besides, ego was also at work. Atiku’s supporters believe that those who succeeded Obasanjo-Yar’Adua and Jonathan-were not better than him in terms of experience and competence.
Atiku chided critics who raised some issues bothering on his credibility. He said no allegation of corruption has been proved against him, adding that detractors were fueling the wrong perception. He added: “I am not a corrupt politician. Have I been indicted in any way for corruption? I served under an administration that has waged war against corruption,” he stressed.
Atiku projected himself as a time-tested democrat, promising to preside over an all-inclusive government. He sought to profit from zoning to the North, like other gladiators in the race, including Gen. Buhari, Kwankwaso and Publisher Nda Isaiah. But, he was demystified at the primary. He emerged a distant second runners up, trailing Kwankwaso, who came second.
Atiku contested for the presidency in 1993, 2007, 2011 and 2015. Will 2019 be different? Will the long distance runner triumph this time around? If he defects to the PDP, what is the assurance that he will get the ticket? If the PDP fields Atiku for the presidency, can he spring a surprise? Can the PDP defeat the APC at the poll?
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